The Brunel Macroeconomics Research Group (BMRG) was founded in 2005 to enhance the quality of research on macro and financial economics within the department and beyond, by fostering high quality (and policy-relevant as well) economic research, and disseminating it widely to other economics departments in the UK and abroad, and to the private sector as well.
Drawing together the expertise of its members and affiliates, BMRG initiates and coordinates research activities and communicates the results quickly and effectively to academics in the UK, Europe and around the world.
One of the aims is to develop links with a distributed network of economists, some of whom are affiliated with BMRG, and to collaborate with them through the Centre on a wide range of policy-related research projects and dissemination activities.
The research group offers particular advantages in conducting innovative research on a broad range of topics in economics and finance.
We have contributed significantly to macro-economic policy making through our work on financial regulation (Prof. Davis and Dr. Karim) and on consumption, savings and pensions (Prof. Davis). We have affected the efficiency of the public sector through our work on debt management.
Prof. Philip Davis is a member of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):
We have changed the debate on development through our direct involvement in foreign direct investment, FDI (Prof. Karanasos).
Prof. Menelaos Karanasos often visits Heidelberg University and the Alfred Weber Institute of Economics:
Prof. Yannis Karavias is doing research that deals with structural breaks which is an essential step in most empirical economic research:
This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, which are all affected by major events. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the global economy; however, its impact on stock markets is still unclear.
Prof. Stylianos Asimakopoulos examines: i) how do firms change their debt structure when the become ESG rated? ii) Do they adjust their optimal leverage position?, and iii) What is the impact of debt-overhang for ESG rated firms?
Prof. Sugata Ghosh is primarily a macroeconomist, specialising in growth theory and empirics, and macro theory and policy; but over the years has diversified his research interests to include issues in development economics, applied microeconomic theory, and environmental economics.
His article on “Ethnic identities, public spending, and political regimes” is available on the Ideas for India webpage.
Prof. Vasilis Sarafidis main area of research lies in the econometric analysis of panel data. During his academic career, Vasilis has acted as an advisor to the Productivity Commission (Australia), the Essential Services Commission in Victoria, the Commonwealth Environmental Office, the NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, the Bureau of Airline Representatives of Australia, and the NSW Corrective Services.
Before studying for his PhD, Vasilis worked as an economist for a private consultancy in the City of London. During that time he led projects involving econometric analysis and modelling for the electricity, water and telecommunications sectors. As a consultant he advised, among others, the Office for Water Services (U.K.), the National Telecom Agency in Denmark, the Jersey Competition Regulatory Authority and the Electricity Association (U.K.)
He has also taught panel data econometrics outside academia, including at the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics, Sydney Water Corporation, as well as at several professional development workshops organised by MEAFA.
Prof. James Steeley during the mid- 1990s worked for the Bank of England, where he managed a research team developing techniques to interpret financial market prices for use in monetary policy advice, and techniques to improve the pricing of UK government debt issues.
He is on the advisory editorial board of the academic journal Studies in Economics and Finance and on the editorial board of the International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance. He is an academic affiliated member of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments and was on the founding editorial board of their research journal.
Among his former students he can count a professor of finance, a professor of economics and the successor to Michael Flatley in Riverdance.
The members of the group have collaborations with a number of Universities in the UK and in Continental Europe. For example, in UK: QMUL, King’s College London, Birkbeck College University of London, University of York; in continental Europe: Heidelberg University, Leibniz University Hannover, Copenhagen University, CREST Paris, University of Milano-Bicocca, University of Turin, and Athens School of Economics and Business.
Prof. Menelaos Karanasos (personal webpage)
Prof. Vasilis Sarafidis (personal webpage)
Prof. Guglielmo Maria Caporale (Brunel webpage)
Prof. Philip Davis (NIESR webpage)
Prof. Sugata Ghosh (Brunel webpage)
Prof. Yannis Karavias (personal webpage)
Prof. Stylianos Asimakopoulos (personal webpage)
Prof. James Steeley (Brunel webpage)
Dr. Fabio Spagnolo (Brunel webpage)
Dr. Nicola Spagnolo (Brunel webpage)
Angeliki Theophilopoulou (Brunel webpage)
Marco Realdon (Brunel Webpage)
Tomoe Moore (Brunel webpage)
Fang Xu (Brunel webpage)
Oleg Badunenko (Brunel webpage)
John Hunter (Brunel webpage)
Dilruba Karim (Brunel webpage)
Ka Kei Chan (Brunel Webpage)
Matteo Pazzona (Personal webpage)
Aris Kartsaklas (Personal webpage)
Apostolos Fasianos (Brunel webpage)
Woo-Young Kang (Brunel webpage)
Stavros Poupakis (Personal webpage)
Sven Fischer (Brunel webpage)
Ana Maria Sova (Brunel webpage)
Matthew Gould (Brunel webpage)
Ruirui Liu (Brunel webpage)
Prashant Gupta (Brunel Webpage)
Russ Moro (Brunel webpage)
Javier Coto-Martinez (Brunel webpage)
Publications (2021 onwards)
Thirteen 4* (ABS List) Publications:
(1)”An incidental parameters free inference approach for panels with common shocks”, Journal of Econometrics, 2022 JE
(2) “Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data”, Journal of Econometrics, 2022 JE
(3) “A linear estimator for factor-augmented fixed-T panels with endogenous regressors”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022 JBES
(4) “Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic linear panel data models with defactored regressors and a multifactor error structure”, Journal of Econometrics, 2021 JE
“Structural breaks in interactive effects panels and the stock market reaction to COVID-19″, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2023 JBES
“The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2022 JMCB
“Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023 EJOR
“A shot in the arm: Economic support packages and firm performance during COVID-19“, Journal of Corporate Finance, 2023 JCF
“Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023 EJOR
“The role of environmental, social, and governance rating on corporate debt structure“, Journal of Corporate Finance, 2023 JCF
(1) “On distinguishing the direct causal effect of an intervention from its efficiency-enhancing effects”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023 EJOR
(2) “Achieving a sustainable cost-efficient business model in banking: The case of European commercial banks”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2021 EJOR
“Inflection points, kinks, and jumps: A statistical approach to detecting nonlinearities”, Organizational Research Methods, 2022 ORM
Fourty five 3* (ABS List) Publications:
(1) “Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers”, Annals of Operations Research, 2022 ANOR
(2) “A three-dimensional asymmetric power HEAVY model”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2022 IJFE
(3) “Financial volatility modeling with option-implied information and important macro-factors”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2022 JORS
(4) “On the economic fundamentals behind the dynamics of equicorrelations among asset classes: Global evidence from equities, real estate and commodities”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2021 JIFMIM
(5) “The long memory HEAVY process: modeling and forecasting financial volatility”, Annals of Operations Research, 2021 ANOR
(6) “Investors’ trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: a dual long-memory model for the Korean stock exchange”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2021 IJFE
“Discrete time affine term structure models with squared Gaussian shocks (DTATSM-SGS)”, Quantitative Finance, 2021 QF
“Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022 JIMF
“Does macroprudential policy alleviate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the resilience of banks?”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2022 JBF
Ka Kei Chan:
“Price convergence between credit default swap and put option: New evidence”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 2023 JEF
“Structural transmissions among investor attention, stock market volatility and trading volumes”, European Financial Management, 2022 EFM
(1) “Peer interactions and performance in a high-skilled labour market”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2022 SJE
(2) “Inequality, crime and private protection”, Economics Letters, 2022 EL
(3) “Migrant diversity and team performance in a high-skilled labour market”, Kyklos, 2022 KY
(1) “IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: Large sample theory and an application on bank attitude toward risk”, The Econometrics Journal, 2023 EJ
(2) “Two-stage instrumental variable estimation of linear panel data models with interactive effects”, The Econometrics Journal, 2022 EJ
(1) “Positional preferences and efficiency in a dynamic economy”, Social Choice and Welfare, 2023 SCW
(2) “Ethnic identities, public spending and political regimes”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 2022 JCE
(1) “Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021 JIFMIM
(2) “On the preferences of CoCo bond buyers and sellers”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021 JIFMIM
(3) “Loss sensitive investors and positively biased analysts in Hong Kong stock market”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2021 RQFE
“The effects of macroprudential policy on banks’ profitability”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2022 IRFA
(1) “Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19″, Economic Letters, 2023 EL
(2) “Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021 OBES
(3) “Are housing wealth effects asymmetric in booms and busts?”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2021 JREFE
“Auctions with leaks about early bids: Analysis and experimental behavior”, Economic Inquiry, 2021 EI
(1) “Political connections and firms: network dimensions”, Oxford Economic Papers, 2023 OEP
(2) “Regression with an imputed dependent variable”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022 JAE
(3) “Does FDI in upstream and downstream sectors facilitate quality upgrading? Evidence from Russian exporters”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022 OBES
(1) “Better to grow or better to improve? Measuring environmental efficiency in OECD countries with a stochastic environmental Kuznets frontier (SEKF)”, Energy Economics, 2023 EE
(2) “Do carbon taxes affect economic and environmental efficiency? The case of British Columbia’s manufacturing plants”, Energy Economics, 2022 EE
(3) “The impact of efficiency on asset quality in banking”, European Journal of Finance, 2022, EJF
(4) “The effect of restructuring electricity distribution systems on firms’ persistent and transient efficiency: The case of Germany”, The Energy Journal, 2021 EJ
(5) “Market size and market structure in banking”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021 JIFMIM
(1) “The combined effects of economic policy uncertainty and environmental, social, and governance ratings on leverage”, European Journal of Finance, forthcoming EJF
(2) “Sustainable finance and governance: an overview”, European Journal of Finance, forthcoming EJF
(3) “A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency”, Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming RED
(4) “Can public spending boost private consumption?”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 2021 CJE
(5) “Dividend smoothing and credit rating changes”, European Journal of Finance, 2021 EJF
(1) “The Covid-19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming IJFE
(2) “The short-run and long-run effects of trade openness on financial development: some panel evidence for Europe”,
International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2023 IJFE
(3) “The direct and indirect effects of financial development on international trade: Evidence from the CEEC-6″, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2022 JIFMIM
“Narrative Tone and Earnings Persistence”, Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 2023 JIAAT
Guglielmo Maria Caporale:
“Political tension and stock markets in the Arabian Peninsula”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2021 IJFE
“The impact of energy, renewable and CO2 emissions efficiency on countries’ productivity“, Energy Economics, 2023 EE
Grants (2021 onwards):
The following grands were awarded to members of the group:
2021/2022, Fang Xu (British Academy, Value added: 8,906, FEC: 70,591.06)
2021/2022, Anamaria Sova and Guglielmo Maria Caporale (BA/Leverhulme grant on Covid-19 and trade)
Yannis Karavias: 2022-2025: Home Office. Project title: “What works Fund, Preventing Violence Against Women
and Girls and Supporting Children”. Project value: £1,078,377. Role: Co-Investigator.
 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “REMEDI”. Project value: £1,580,080.
Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.
 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “Redthread”. Project value: £ 2,106,582.
 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “United Borders”. Project value: £
652,286. Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.
 2021-2022: INTERPOL. Project title: “Advice on current and emerging global criminal and
terrorism-related trends and threats”. Project value: £24,643.44. Role: Co-Investigator.
 2020-2021: Home Office. Project title: “Supply of Domestic Abuse Perpetrators Research”. Project
value: £95,137.52. Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.
A European Commission FP7 grant for a collaborative project entitled: Macro Risk Assessment and Stabilization Policies with New Early Warning Signals (RASTANEWS); 2013-2016.
Twelve European universities worked together on this project. RASTANEWS received the highest rating out of more than 100 grant applications. The grant was € 2.4M in total, with approximately €88K coming to Brunel.
PhD Students (2021-onwards):
Currently the members of the group supervise seventeen PhD students:
(1) Jiaying Wu (03/2019-02/2023)
(2) Ekaterina Glebkina (Part time: 12/19-present)
(1) Maria Popova (01/2021-present)
(2) Mohammed Morshed (04/2021-present)
(1) Theodosios Drossidis (11/2021-present)
(2) Michalitsa Gkolfinopoulou (01/2022-present)
(1) Shabnam Aghayeva (10/2021-present)
(2) Delburt Alfred (10/2021-present)
(3) Chelvanayaki Selvakumar (04/2023-present)
Mahnaz Oliaie (03/2022-present)
Ridwa Abdilahi (04/2023-present)
Viet Hung Ly (01/2018-05/2022)
Jiahui Ding (10/2019-09/2023)
Ka Kei Chan:
Oluwaseun Dada (Part Time: 01/10/2019-present)
Emmanuel Mekpor (01/2022-present)
Denisa Petricean (11/2019-10/2023)
Asil Shatila (06/2023-present)
Former PhD students:
Stavroula Yfanti (Senior Lecturer, QMUL, Business School)
Panagiotis Koutroumpis (Lecturer, University of Sussex, Business School)
Ning Zeng (Associate Professor, Macau University of Science and Technology, China)
Hayan Omran (Lecturer, Damascus University, Syria)
Maher Aliwa (Lecturer, Tishreen University, Syria)
Zannis Margaronis (RZ Corporation Ltd, UK)
Stavros Dafnos (Ministry of Education, Greece)
Guglielmo Maria Caporale:
Faek Menla Ali (Senior Lecturer, University of Sussex, Business School)