Brunel Macroeconomics Research Group (BMRG)

Director: Prof. Menelaos Karanasos




Group Aims:

The Brunel Macroeconomics Research Group (BMRG) was founded in 2005 to enhance the quality of research on macro and financial economics within the department and beyond, by fostering high quality (and policy-relevant as well) economic research, and disseminating it widely to other economics departments in the UK and abroad, and to the private sector as well.

Drawing together the expertise of its members and affiliates, BMRG initiates and coordinates research activities and communicates the results quickly and effectively to academics in the UK, Europe and around the world.

Key Collaborations:

One of the aims is to develop links with a distributed network of economists, some of whom are affiliated with BMRG, and to collaborate with them through the Centre on a wide range of policy-related research projects and dissemination activities.

The research group offers particular advantages in conducting innovative research on a broad range of topics in economics and finance.

We have contributed significantly to macro-economic policy making through our work on financial regulation (Prof. Davis and Dr. Karim) and on consumption, savings and pensions (Prof. Davis). We have affected the efficiency of the public sector through our work on debt management.

Prof. Philip Davis is a member of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR):

We have changed the debate on development through our direct involvement in foreign direct investment, FDI (Prof.  Karanasos).

Prof. Menelaos Karanasos often visits Heidelberg University and the Alfred Weber Institute of Economics:

Menelaos KARANASOS | Brunel University London, Uxbridge | Department of  Economics and Finance | Research profile

Alfred Weber

Prof. Yannis Karavias is doing research that deals with structural breaks which is an essential step in most empirical economic research:Yiannis Karavias — University of Birmingham

Structural breaks and GARCH models of stock return volatility: The case of  South Africa - ScienceDirect

This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, which are all affected by major events. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the global economy; however, its impact on stock markets is still unclear.

Prof. Stylianos Asimakopoulos examines: i) how do firms change their debt structure when the become ESG rated? ii) Do they adjust their optimal leverage position?, and iii) What is the impact of debt-overhang for ESG rated firms?

Stylianos ASIMAKOPOULOS | Professor | BSc, MSc, PhD in Economics | Brunel  University London, Uxbridge | Department of Economics and Finance |  Research profile

Using Senior Debt Capital for Strategic Growth - Pricoa Private Capital

Prof. Sugata Ghosh is primarily a macroeconomist, specialising in growth theory and empirics, and macro theory and policy; but over the years has diversified his research interests to include issues in development economics, applied microeconomic theory, and environmental economics.


His article on “Ethnic identities, public spending, and political regimes” is available on the Ideas for India webpage.

UK Public Spending - Numbers Charts Analysis History

Prof. Guglielmo Maria Caporale  is a CESifo Research Network Fellow and an RCEA (Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis) Senior Fellow. He is also a member of the Money, Macro and Finance (MMF) SocietyProfessor Guglielmo Maria Caporale | Introduction | Brunel University LondonCESifo Research Network Statistics | CESifo


Prof. Vasilis Sarafidis  main area of research lies in the econometric analysis of panel data. During his academic career, Vasilis has acted as an advisor to the Productivity Commission (Australia), the Essential Services Commission in Victoria, the Commonwealth Environmental Office, the NSW Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, the Bureau of Airline Representatives of Australia, and the NSW Corrective Services. Vasilis SARAFIDIS | Professor | Econometrics (PhD) | Brunel University  London, Uxbridge | Department of Economics and Finance | Research profile

Before studying for his PhD, Vasilis worked as an economist for a private consultancy in the City of London. During that time he led projects involving econometric analysis and modelling for the electricity, water and telecommunications sectors. As a consultant he advised, among others, the Office for Water Services (U.K.), the National Telecom Agency in Denmark, the Jersey Competition Regulatory Authority and the Electricity Association (U.K.)

He has also taught panel data econometrics outside academia, including at the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics, Sydney Water Corporation, as well as at several professional development workshops organised by MEAFA.


The members of the group have collaborations with a number of Universities in the UK and in Continental Europe. For example, in UK: QMUL, King’s College London, Birkbeck College University of London, University of York; in continental Europe: Heidelberg University, Leibniz University Hannover, Copenhagen University, CREST Paris,  University of Milano-Bicocca, University of Turin, and Athens School of Economics and Business.

Professor James Steeley | Introduction | Brunel University LondonProf. James Steeley during the mid- 1990s worked for the Bank of England, where he managed a research team developing techniques to interpret financial market prices for use in monetary policy advice, and techniques to improve the pricing of UK government debt issues.

Bank of England - Wikipedia

He is on the advisory editorial board of the academic journal Studies in Economics and Finance and on the editorial board of the International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance. He is an academic affiliated member of the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments and was on the founding editorial board of their research journal.

Introduction to the CISI - YouTube

 Among his former students he can count a professor of finance, a professor of economics and the successor to Michael Flatley in Riverdance.

Publications (2021 onwards) koaladance

Thirteen 4* (ABS List) Publications:

Vasilis Sarafidis:

(1)”An incidental parameters free inference approach for panels with common shocks”,  Journal of Econometrics, 2022

JoE | Journal of Econometrics | by Elsevier

(2) “Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data”, Journal of Econometrics, 2022 

(3) “A linear estimator for factor-augmented fixed-T panels with endogenous regressors”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022

(4) “Instrumental variable estimation of dynamic linear panel data models with defactored regressors and a multifactor error structure”, Journal of Econometrics, 2021 

PDF Files:

(1) JE; (2) JE; (3) JBES; (4) JE


Yiannis Karavias:

“Structural breaks in interactive effects panels and the stock market reaction to COVID-19″, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2023

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics | Taylor & Francis Online

Angeliki Theophilopoulou:

“The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom”,  Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 2022

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking: Vol 55, No 6

Menelaos Karanasos:

“Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023

Tomoe Moore:

A shot in the arm: Economic support packages and firm performance during COVID-19“, Journal of Corporate Finance, 2023

New Publication in the Journal of Corporate Finance - Universität Bremen

Wenke Zhang:

“Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023

Stylianos Asimakopoulos:

The role of environmental, social, and governance rating on corporate debt structure“, Journal of Corporate Finance, 2023

Oleg Badunenko:

(1) “On distinguishing the direct causal effect of an intervention from its efficiency-enhancing effects”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2023

Paper Accepted at European Journal on Operational Research | Business  School | University of Mannheim

(2) “Achieving a sustainable cost-efficient business model in banking: The case of European commercial banks”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2021

Nicola Spagnolo:

“Inflection points, kinks, and jumps: A statistical approach to detecting nonlinearities”, Organizational Research Methods, 2022

Organizational Research Methods - YouTube

PDF files:

I. Karavias: JBES;

A. Theofilopoulou: JMCB;

M. Karanasos: EJOR;

T. Moore: JCF;

W. Zhang:  EJOR;

S. Asimakopoulos: JCF;

O. Badunenko: (1) EJOR, (2) EJOR;

N. Spagnolo:  ORM

Fourty five 3* (ABS List) Publications:

Menelaos Karanasos:

(1) “Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers”,  Annals of Operations Research, 2022 

(2) “A three-dimensional asymmetric power HEAVY model”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2022

(3) “Financial volatility modeling with option-implied information and important macro-factors”,  Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2022

Dr. Antonis Alexandridis Publishes a Research Paper in the Journal of the Operational  Research Society on Real Estate Valuation – Kent Business School

(4) “On the economic fundamentals behind the dynamics of equicorrelations among asset classes: Global evidence from equities, real estate and commodities”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 2021

(5) “The long memory HEAVY process: modeling and forecasting financial volatility”, Annals of Operations Research, 2021

(6) “Investors’ trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: a dual long-memory model for the Korean stock exchange”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2021

Marco Realdon:

“Discrete time affine term structure models with squared Gaussian shocks (DTATSM-SGS)”, Quantitative Finance,  2021

Access finance research - Taylor & Francis

Fabio Spagnolo:

“Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2022

G.M. Caporale - Editorial Board - Journal of International Money and Finance  - Journal - Elsevier

Tomoe Moore:

“Does macroprudential policy alleviate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on the resilience of banks?”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 2022

Journal of Banking & Finance – Available now – Asian Bankers Association

Ka Kei Chan:

“Price convergence between credit default swap and put option: New evidence”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 2023

New paper by Jun Ma accepted to Journal of Empirical Finance - Department  of Economics

Fang Xu:

“Structural transmissions among investor attention, stock market volatility and trading volumes”, European Financial Management, 2022

European Financial Management Association 2023 Annual Meeting

Matteo Pazzona:

(1) “Peer interactions and performance in a high-skilled labour market”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2022

The Scandinavian Journal of Economics (@ScandJEcon) / X

(2) “Inequality, crime and private protection”, Economics Letters, 2022 

(3) “Migrant diversity and team performance in a high-skilled labour market”, Kyklos, 2022

Vasilis Sarafidis:

(1) “IV estimation of spatial dynamic panels with interactive effects: Large sample theory and an application on bank attitude toward risk”, The Econometrics Journal, 2023

The Econometrics Journal | Oxford Academic

(2) “Two-stage instrumental variable estimation of linear panel data models with interactive effects”, The Econometrics Journal, 2022

Sugata Ghosh:

(1) “Positional preferences and efficiency in a dynamic economy”,  Social Choice and Welfare, 2023

Springernomics on X: "Call for Papers - Social Choice and Welfare:  #SpecialIssue on "Fair #PublicDecisionMaking: Allocating #budgets, seats,  and probability". Guest edited by @harisazizk, Felix Brandt, Edith Elkind  and Jérôme Lang. Submission

(2) “Ethnic identities, public spending and political regimes”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 2022

The Inefficiency of Laissez-Faire in Russia: Hysteresis Effects and the  Need for Policy-Led Transformation | Grigory Yavlinsky

Woo-Young Kang:

(1) “Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021

(2) “On the preferences of CoCo bond buyers and sellers”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021 

(3) “Loss sensitive investors and positively biased analysts in Hong Kong stock market”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2021

Dilruba Karim:

“The effects of macroprudential policy on banks’ profitability”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 2022 

Apostolos Fasianos:

(1) “Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19″, Economic Letters, 2023

(2)  “Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021

The trend of increasing co-authorship in economics: New evidence | CEPR

(3) “Are housing wealth effects asymmetric in booms and busts?”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2021

Sven Fischer:

“Auctions with leaks about early bids: Analysis and experimental behavior”, Economic Inquiry, 2021

Stavros Poupakis:

(1) “Political connections and firms: network dimensions”, Oxford Economic Papers, 2023

Oxford Economics on X: "A new #openaccess article in Oxford Economic Papers  presents a study identifying the factors contributing to price fluctuations  in artworks after an artist's death. Read 'Posthumous trading patterns

(2) “Regression with an imputed dependent variable”,  Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022

Journal of Applied Econometrics Data Archive (Original Site)

(3) “Does FDI in upstream and downstream sectors facilitate quality upgrading? Evidence from Russian exporters”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2022

Oleg Badunenko:

(1) “Better to grow or better to improve? Measuring environmental efficiency in OECD countries with a stochastic environmental Kuznets frontier (SEKF)”, Energy Economics, 2023 

(2)  “Do carbon taxes affect economic and environmental efficiency? The case of British Columbia’s manufacturing plants”, Energy Economics, 2022 

(3) “The impact of efficiency on asset quality in banking”, European Journal of Finance, 2022,

(4) “The effect of restructuring electricity distribution systems on firms’ persistent and transient efficiency: The case of Germany”, The Energy Journal, 2021

(5) “Market size and market structure in banking”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2021 

Stylianos Asimakopoulos:

(1) “The combined effects of economic policy uncertainty and environmental, social, and governance ratings on leverage”,  European Journal of Finance, forthcoming

(2) “Sustainable finance and governance: an overview”, European Journal of Finance, forthcoming

(3) “A Bayesian DSGE approach to modelling cryptocurrency”, Review of Economic Dynamics, forthcoming

(4)  “Can public spending boost private consumption?”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 2021

Canadian Journal of Economics (CJE)

(5) “Dividend smoothing and credit rating changes”, European Journal of Finance, 2021

Anamaria Sova:

(1) “The Covid-19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming

(2) “The short-run and long-run effects of trade openness on financial development: some panel evidence for Europe”,

International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2023

(3) “The direct and indirect effects of financial development on international trade: Evidence from the CEEC-6″,  Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2022

Sheehan Rahman:

“Narrative Tone and Earnings Persistence”, Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 2023

JIAAT | Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation | by Elsevier

Guglielmo Maria Caporale:

“Political tension and stock markets in the Arabian Peninsula”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 2021

Nicola Spagnolo:

The impact of energy, renewable and CO2 emissions efficiency on countries’ productivity“, Energy Economics, 2023 

Center For Energy Economics | Bureau of Economic Geology

PDF Files:

M. Karanasos: (1) ANOR; (2) IJFE; (3) JORS; (4) JIFMIM; (5) ANOR; (6) IJFE

M. Realdon: QF

F. Spagnolo: JIMF

T. Moore: JBF

K. K. Chan: JEF

F. Xu: EFM

M. Pazzona: (1) SJE; (2) EL; (3) KY

V. Sarafidis: (1) EJ; (2) EJ

S. Ghosh: (1) SCW; (2) JCE 

W-Y, Kang: (1): JIFMIM; (2) JIFMIM; (3) RQFE

D. Karim: IRFA

A. Fasianos: (1) EL; (2) OBES; (3) JREFE

S. Fischer: EI

S. Poupakis: (1) OEP; (2) JAE; (3) OBES

O. Badunenko: (1) EE; (2) EE; (3) EJF; (4) EJ; (5) JIFMIM

S. Asimakopoulos: (1) EJF ; (2) EJF; (3) RED; (4) CJE; (5) EJF

A. Sova: (1)  IJFE ; (2) IJFE; (3) JIFMIM

S. Rahman: JIAAT

G. Maria-Caporale:  IJFE

N. Spagnolo: EE

Grants (2021 onwards): koaladance

The following grands were awarded to members of the group:

2021/2022, Fang Xu (British Academy, Value added: 8,906, FEC: 70,591.06)

The British Academy for the humanities and social sciences — Vitae Website

2021/2022, Anamaria Sova and Guglielmo Maria Caporale (BA/Leverhulme grant on Covid-19 and trade)

2022 Leverhulme Early Career Fellowships – call for applications | Faculty  of Arts, Humanities and Cultures | University of Leeds

Yannis Karavias:

[6] 2022-2025: Home Office. Project title: “What works Fund, Preventing Violence Against Women and Girls and Supporting Children”. Project value: £1,078,377. Role: Co-Investigator.

Youth Endowment Fund (@YouthEndowFund) / X[5] 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “REMEDI”. Project value: £1,580,080. Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.

[4] 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “Redthread”. Project value: £ 2,106,582.

Role: Co-Investigator.

[3] 2022-2025: Youth Endowment Foundation. Project title: “United Borders”. Project value: £ 652,286. Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.

[2] 2021-2022: INTERPOL. Project title: “Advice on current and emerging global criminal and terrorism-related trends and threats”. Project value: £24,643.44. Role: Co-Investigator.

Interpol urges police to unite against 'potential ransomware pandemic'

[1] 2020-2021: Home Office. Project title: “Supply of Domestic Abuse Perpetrators Research”. Project value: £95,137.52. Role: Co-Investigator, Impact Evaluation Lead.

Home Office faces high court challenge over 'profiteering' fees |  Immigration and asylum | The Guardian

Past Grants

Menelaos Karanasos:

A European Commission FP7 grant for a collaborative project entitled: Macro Risk Assessment and Stabilization Policies with New Early Warning Signals (RASTANEWS); 2013-2016.

Twelve European universities worked together on this project. RASTANEWS received the highest rating out of more than 100 grant applications. The grant was € 2.4M in total, with approximately €88K coming to Brunel.



S. Yfanti

Stavroula Yfanti - Research Portal | Lancaster University

P. Koutroumpis

Dr. Panagiotis Koutroumpis | Queen Mary University London | London, UK

N. Zeng

Ning ZENG | Professor (Associate) | PhD | Macau University of Science and  Technology, Macau | MUST | School of Business | Research profile

H. Omran


M. Aliwa


Z. Margaronis


S. Dafnos

Stavros Dafnos

F. Menla Ali

Faek MENLA ALI | Senior Lecturer | PhD | University of Sussex, Brighton |  Business School | Research profile